• Western capitals continue to push and pressure #OPEC + saying: ‘main oil producers aren’t doing enough for reducing their emissions and footprints’
• The key Q at COP28 should be “who’s measuring & pricing Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions/footprints of forever wars, invasion and occupations?”
• Sultan Al Jaber and the UAE should capitalize on COP28 to call out the largest global emitters: “The Elephant in The Room”
• I reviewed the entire COP28’s 10 day program & sadly did not see a single hour dedicated to discussing the footprint of arbitrary wars and occupations
• The current narrative that the Oil & Gas sector is the sole largest culprit for climate change is categorically wrong, dishonest and hardly holds any water!
• In this light, criticizing the UAE or any other OPEC + member for hosting a COP meeting as a “petrostate” does not cut the mustard of realpolitik
• Why? Because it’s like saying no future global peace talks should be held in the US given US’s record in Forever Wars, invasions or opposing ceasefires
• Wagging fingers at the UAE for producing 2.6m bpd is myopic – the focus should be on emissions of destruction and not extraction/production
• The world deserves a transparent Global Stocktake of cradle to grave emissions from jet fuel to burn pits of wars, aggressions & occupations – “All In”
• IPCC’s & UNFCCC’s “hear no evil see no evil” approach towards the largest global institutional user/s of fossil fuels is hypocritical
• “Voluntary Declarations” are the root cause of this hypocrisy, footprint denialism and emissions exceptionalism and ambiguity
• In 2022, the global military expenditure was $2.2tn but what is the net share of emissions of this capital deployment in wars & aggressions?
• As the COP28 host, the UAE should lead the march for a Global Conflicts Carbon Compass & Pricing: GC3P
• What are the Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions from the demolition of 200,000 homes, hospitals and schools & #UN Offices in past 4 weeks?

Staying Sober, Sound & Sensible…

UAE: Ultra Altruism on Emissions in Partnership with Global South & Enabled by AI?

Q1: What if the UAE was to announce & commit to funding and developing 1st Global Conflict Carbon Compass? at COP28 in collaboration with a leading AI company/ies and to put this on the agenda as the most important missing link on climate crises?

Q2: Isn’t it about time we paint a clear comparative picture, and differentiate the emissions of extraction/production vs. the tragic emissions of destruction of wars?

Q3: Wouldn’t such an initiative by the UAE rally the Global South/G77, as the existing and future users of fossil fuels and whose economic prosperity and just development depends on still?

The Keeling Curve and the Killing Curve

Q1: Did you know that one of the most important and yet overlooked charts for understanding and tackling climate change is the Keeling Curve ?

Q2: The key Q is why emissions have shot through the roof after 1954. Could the answer be in the undeclared, unaccounted and un-priced emissions of forever wars, from Vietnam to Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Gaza? What can total footprint of the entire demolished infrastructure, and all the yet to be emitted emissions for reconstruction tell us in making sense of this chart?

Q3: If we were to correlate the jump on the Keeling Curve with the Killing Curve of all the wars and apply a dynamic pricing for such emissions and sending the bill to the aggressors, could such a potential L&D (Loss & Damage) Fund help to prevent potential future conflicts, arbitrary wars and occupations?

From Kinetic Wars to Energy Wars – From Energy Security to Energy Dominance

Tragically the first casualty of any war, conflict and occupation is the truth.

Q1: Whether or not a “third party” nipped Nord Stream and if that third party today is the main supplier of LNG to EU is irrelevant. The more pressing and vital Q we should ask is if the planet/climate and humanity are any better for it? Who is measuring the emissions of Big Power Clandestine Games?

Q2: The largest LNG vessels in the world are owned by Qatar. The QMax ships can carry 266,000 cubic meters, of LNG per sail. Now compare that with 150bn cubic meters of gas that flowed as recently as 2021 via Nord Stream to Europe. Replacing this would mean 1’000 QMax cross-Atlantic return trips that burn bunker fuels. Is SEFE: Securing Energy for Europe sharing the delta of these extra emissions with German and EU citizens?

Q3: Yet the biggest emissions are lies and dishonest claims such as “we can forego all things oil and gas”. Very few have come forward with a credible total net assessment of emissions required for this transition to illustrate the total GHGs cost of “electrification”. What is the net delta of savings on emissions from mining seabed, the chase for rare earths/minerals on the moon, or unproven “technofixes” like CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage)? Or will we create more emissions?

The Substantiated Facts & Unsubstantiated Farces

Q1:  It’s often said, “The climate crises require a wartime footing”- but can’t we argue that as a matter of fact we’re facing climate crises purely because of one too many war “footing” and hardly any measurements of their footprints? Which should remind us all of McNamara Fallacy

Q2: Doesn’t the excuse that “we can’t release this data (our arbitrary wars’ and occupations’ emissions) for national security reasons” cause a direct insecurity for mankind and pose a direct threat to the collective global security?

Q3: At what point does the “collective global security” override a unipolar world order? If we are to cut 43% of our emissions by 2030, should not we cut the rate of emissions of hubris in tandem with the actual CO2 emissions?

J.R.R. Tolkien said: “Courage is found in unlikely places.”

Let’s hope COP28 can be the place to call out the Elephant in the Room

Ali Borhani is the Managing Director of 3Sixty Strategic Advisors Ltd. It is the readers’ responsibility to verify their own facts. The views and opinions expressed  in this article/commentary are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other individual, agency, organization, employer or company.