- United States finds herself in confusion and contention at home and amidst a host of existing, and brewing self-induced conflicts abroad
- President Biden’s cognitive challenges, are metamorphically a reminder of an aging hegemon in denial of a changing world order
- The era of “Geopolitical Polyamory” for United States is coming to an end. Dating United States has been perilous for both friends and foes
- Meanwhile the locksmiths of The Global South and Eurasia are hard at work to unlock The Chastity Belt of Sanctions
- As echoes of asset seizures get louder from Brazil to Beijing, so do the sounds of cracks in US’s fiscal and debt osteoporosis
- The new candidates who wish to join BRICS+, SCO and other new clubs all share one thing in common…
- They all believe that the current “International Rules Based Order”– is missing an i and feels more like “International Rules Biased Order”
- “The Rest” also witness in disbelief, United States’ disarray and brewing polarization at home…
- Could it ironically be The Global South who really wish to decouple, derisk & diversify? Should we see the world through their optics?
Staying Sober, Sound & Sensible…
United States & West Asia (aka Middle East) – The L4/L5 of Global Geopolitics
Q1: Is the washed away, inoperable pier built by US in Gaza only a showcase of poor engineering? Or also a reflection of United States’ inability to influence to broker a ceasefire to end this human tragedy? Is US credibility also being washed away in these crises?
Q2: Lancet’s latest report on the actual number of causalities can come back to haunt United States as a heavy geopolitical boomerang. Can they break the back of already fractured “International Rules Based Order”?
Q3: On July 24th for the 4th time ever in history, Bibi spoke to a joint meeting of Congress. Winston Churchill was invited only 3 times to do so. One wonders if Churchill was still around, would he have advised his allies across The Atlantic differently on this invitation?
Europe & an Imminent Trump Presidency: The Hard Choices Ahead
Q1: Europe will have a very hard time remaining a pure Atlanticist. Geography dictates the terms and so will the economy. As James Carville once said,“The Economy Stupid”.These days one could say:“The Geopolitics Stupid”. Europe is learning the hard way that it can choose its alliances, but it cannot modify the realities of The Heartland. Can Brussels overlook or deny the realities of interdependence to Eurasia?
Q2: While the SWFs of the Global South arrive to electrify Europe, and as IRA woos European companies across The Atlantic, can Europe reject the billion-dollar investments by BYD in Turkey or the $7.3bn investment by CATL (world’s biggest EV battery maker) in Hungary?
Q3: Brussels preaches BRICS+ on necessity of decarbonisation, while it increases shipments of LNG across The Atlantic, burning millions of tons of marine fuel to address continent’s energy deficit. Can EU disclose emissions’ footprint of shipping LNG from across Atlantic against Nord Stream I & II?
NATO to NPTO: North Pacific Treaty Organization? A New Convex of Geostrategic Miscalculation
Q1: US is planning a NATO “Liaison Office” in Tokyo, in ASEAN’s backyard. Will China consider NATO’s encroachment into Asia Pacific with pragmatism, patience or perceive it as a predatory provocation? Has China learned anything from Russia’s experience in dealing with NATO’s expansionism since 1991? What are the ramifications if SCO opens a “Liaison Office” in Belmopan, Guatemala or Mexico City?
Q2: ASEAN/East Asia have not seen a single bomb drooped in their backyard in the past 30 years. Should they wait for this ticking timebomb, or will they act with pragmatism to prevent it from detonation and dispatch their Geopolitical Bomb Squads?
Q3: Can India be indifferent to all of this? Can’t Pivot to Asia, in 20 years become a Pivot to India? Particularly if India continues to embrace Russia?
The Morning After USD: From TINA (There is No Alternative) to m-Bridge
Q1: Is m-Bridge a bridge too far or too near? NATO just declared China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war and presenting “systemic challenges”. As such NATO is told by US to confront China. Reading between the lines, can this be a precursor to seize or for “reclaiming” Chinese assets in EU?
Q2: Debt sustainability has an umbilical cord to trust. With the trust between US and her partners in Global South, melting faster than glaciers in Chamonix, one wonders how long can such adventurism, confiscation and seizures continue? Global South countries have already heard the Canary in the “Gold” Mine. Hence the gold rush by Central Banks and the growing cross continental concerns over US inability to repay her debt.
Q3: Yet, does Global South have the capacity to put fibre optic, undersea cables, and space/satellite connectivity in place for a fully independent financial grid? If USA decides to deprive m-Bridge and BRICS+ from using US’s existing financial tech/architecture and infrastructure, what next?
In the eyes of the Global South, United States is suffering from Masochism at Home, in a Passive Aggressive Relationship with Her Allies & a Sadistic (forever wars, sanctions and seizures of assets) with anyone who does not fall in line. United States needs healing at home, harmony abroad and a few years of Geopolitical Therapy. No shortage of sofas, but who can act as a credible, honest, courageous and capable shrink?