- Wars create tragedies & also set in motion massive arbitrage in capital, commodity and currency markets
- Most important than all of the above, they cause an arbitrage in Human Capital Markets
- Every war ignites a primary, secondary & tertiary wave of human displacement: refugees + migrants & also dictate a relocation of wealth and fortunes
- Yet the “Talent Grab & Brain Heist” are the biggest spoils & loot of any war – one we don’t pay enough attention to
- As such sanctions are the primary clipping tool for cutting off the adversary/ies Human Capital Mojo
- However sanctions are a double edge sword/clipper – a clipper that is destined to cut both ways eventually
- Weaponization of currencies: tempting, convenient & addictive yet corrosive for long-term prosperity of Global North
- The latest round of sanctions has made harrowing loud noises & deep echoes in Global South’s (GS) corridors of power
- The Aggregate Economic Size of GS is akin to an ice breaker moving slowly & bent on breaking the ice of Sanctions
- Global North is fixated on China’s “SWIFT” rise to become the 2nd largest economy in the world while she may be just warming up with e-CNY (digital Yuan) reforming/opening its capital markets & who knows maybe launch a global talent attraction strategy in light of her ageing population…
Staying Sober, Sound & Sensible…
…But What About Sanctions, Sanctions & More Sanctions?
Q1: Have US & EU become “Sanction Junkies”? What are implications of reciprocity? Sanctions, Windex & My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Q2: Sanctions/Wall Street Asset Freeze all easy to apply. Is the US shooting itself in the foot? Most precious reserve to hold: Trust
Q3: Can US/West remain trusted custodians of SWFs & UHNWIs wealth? Geneva Goaded Too: Future nest for Global South’s wealth?
Q4: A new game in town: Currency Swaps on Steroids (₹ to ₽ & ¥ to ₽). Is a new currency basket imminent in the next 3-5 years?
From Baloney Virtue Signaling to Ignoring Ballooning Risks
Q1: Banning Dostoevsky from Universities is akin to banning Shakespeare during Iraq war. Are we losing our sanity?
Q2: “Inflation Inflamed”: manufacturing costs in US/EU shooting to the roof. Has on-shoring once again drifted away from the shores?
Q3: Bread Revolutions 2.0/Arab Autumn/Fall are oven ready coming to a theatre close to you. Can EU deal with a new wave of refugees?
Q4: What are security repercussions if only 5 % of the Western “Freedom Fighters” with latest US kits & PSTD go haywire on EU soil?
The Morning After a “New Minsk Peace Treaty”…
All wars end with a signature. From “Operation Iraqi Freedom” or Afghanistan’s “Operation Enduring Freedom” which after 20 years of suffering has sadly handed 37million inhabitants and their broken dreams as hostages back to Taliban yet…
Q1: Who will pick up the reconstruction tab? From Mariupol to Mazar i Sharif, Donetsk to Damascus & Berdyansk to Benghazi?
Q2: With massive inflation in a post COVID + Ukraine era, reconstruction needs a real “Show Me The Money”. Can B3W show up?!
Q3: Or will China’s BRI be the ultimate beneficiary? Will EU find herself geo-economically short changed after this latest crisis?
Q4: The sphere of influence expands after wars. Marshall Plan was called ERP. Is an HRP: Heartland Recovery Plan in making?
From OPEC to O-PEAK Please, to O-SHIT NO!
Q1: Oil prices flirted with $130pb & may soon date with $200pb – OPEC was asked to O-PEAK The Production. Will & should it?
Q2: KSA Selling oil in Yuan is like untying the shoelace of USD. Is MBS playing Russian Roulette with US or is this the inevitable?
Q3: Is the possible release of SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserves too soon, too little if the conflict goes to “Extra Time” of winter 2022?
Q4: By the way do you remember Juan Guaido? Where is the “El Presidente”? Politics is….
…as Ronald Reagan famously said:
“It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.”
It would not be an exaggeration to say that in context of integrity this comparison is an insult to the people in 1st oldest profession!
Ali Borhani is the Managing Director of 3Sixty Strategic Advisors Ltd. It is the readers’ responsibility to verify their own facts. The views and opinions expressed in this article/commentary are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any other individual, agency, organization, employer or company.